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Royal Caribbean sees Q4 loss, shares slump
Tue, Nov 03 13:33 PM EST

By Deepa Seetharaman

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL.N)(RCL.OL) forecast a fourth-quarter loss on Tuesday, citing weak pricing for its cruises and the faltering economy in Florida, sending its shares down more than 6 percent.

The world's second-largest cruise operator forecast a fourth-quarter loss of 5 cents per share. Wall Street had expected a fourth-quarter profit of 4 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The loss would be due in part to the weakness Florida's economy, which has been hurt by 11 percent unemployment and the weak real estate market. About 20 percent of guests on the company's Caribbean cruises are drawn from the state in the fourth quarter.

"We have seen our demand from Florida for the fall season drop by double-digits," Chief Financial Officer Brian Rice said during a conference call with analysts.

Company executives said first-quarter demand would not be as reliant on this segment of the business. Royal Caribbean also said it still expected positive net revenue yields in 2010. Net revenue yields are a measure of performance in the cruise industry.

But Bernstein Research analyst Janet Brashear noted the company's tone about yields was more tentative than the previous quarter. In their release, the company noted higher yields compared with 2009 and said this metric would be positive after an analyst inquired on the conference call.

"Their overall evasiveness on this point ... was hardly reassuring," Brashear wrote in a research note.

The Miami-based company expects 2009 earnings per share of 70 cents, 4 cents below what analysts had been forecasting.

Its shares were down 5.8 percent, or $1.21, at $19.46 on the New York Stock Exchange in afternoon trading.

THIRD-QUARTER RESULTS

Stronger close-in bookings helped Royal Caribbean's third-quarter results surpass analyst expectations on Tuesday. Booking volume since mid-September has been up about 40 percent compared with the same period last year.

The company reported third-quarter net income of $230.4 million, or $1.07 per share, compared with $411.9 million, or $1.92 per share a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, had expected $1.00 per share. Third-quarter revenue slid to $1.8 billion, in line with analysts' estimates.

Upward momentum in the broader market and signs of stabilization in the sector have boosted the shares of Royal Caribbean since early March. But fears of the H1N1 virus, high unemployment and lower prices have thrown roadblocks on its path to recovery.

Royal Caribbean is betting its Oasis of the Seas cruise ship will help stimulate bookings and drive demand for cruises. The ship embarks on its first sailing in December.

The ship has not yet been sold out, but Chief Executive Richard Fain noted this was part of the company's overall strategy.

"There's been some news that the upper category (cabins) are unavailable far into the future," Fain said. "That does mean we sold those cabins too cheaply. We should have held them longer."

(Reporting by Deepa Seetharaman; editing by Gerald E. McCormick and Andre Grenon)

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