Apr. 2 - April is traditionally a strong month for stocks, but Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac says a big gain in the Dow Industrials on the first trading day of the month might be a signal to sell.
April is historically one of the best months for US stock markets but after double digit percent gains on the S&P in the first quarter. Do that markets have any stains less demand. For his thoughts enjoyed by Jeff -- president and editor in chief of the stock traders' almanac good to see you here against good to be here again the classic. Maxim is you go for investors is salad may go way should we wait that long this time is April going to enable us to add any big gains on Q1. Perhaps a little bit not much as far as I can tell I think they're really strong February in the warm -- months may have brought a lot of gains ahead. But that early April has concerned I think we have some upside however we don't wait for the may -- and of people to start looking for so we look for technical trigger starting on the the first treated people which is pretty much on the cusp right now. But if we do -- -- trigger will have no problem -- -- what would that trigger -- Me that the Dow would need to gain. A significant amount. Upwards of ninety points there are so on and on the first -- Now let me ask you since 2000 stick six stocks have risen every year during the month of April average gain is about four point 2%. Can stocks managed a game like that this year in the month. I don't think that they have that much in the area right now problem in election years you see those gains -- in half and even the NASDAQ will has turned negative way back 71. An election years -- words to the had negative point one average and so this seems to be a bit of selling in election years when April comes around after. Have a better idea of who the contenders are going to be for a national -- I'm trying to figure out why that is. Thumb I think it the focus changes people are looking away from their state primary and looking at the greater picture and also runs along the seasonal -- you have. First quarter disappointments. But whether it's economic -- corporate results and and the general. You know decrease in volume as people do have other activities over the warmer months in the Northern Hemisphere. An April of course is sort of up in the air it sounds like from what you're saying and perhaps we'll start selling we are actually potentially going to enter the worst six month period of the year. We're six months may through October com we look firm you know as I said technical indicator give us a good -- point. We're pretty successful with that this year in the past three years red October 6 2011 by signal using similar criteria so we've come you know go a long way in and we're pretty happy with that we're getting. In a ready to get the sense of tighten up stops and and limit my game and -- -- take some defensive positions. Even when the markets are down there are typically sectors that might outperform. Is -- a sector that typically does better in the weaker. Part of the asked market. You happy do see some strength from energy even though we've had a big move there already because of the driving season the air conditioning season we see a lot of use from from natural gas you know that's me you know long term secular bear market with zone right now which. Who knows elements and and but you see -- push an oil for that the big production of gasoline in the driving season. But for the most part we wait for this summer when things are down alive August some -- start picking up the sectors is his second place again some. A whole lot Jeff -- stock trader's almanac president thanks so much for your time -- I'm Rhonda schaffler this is writers.