April 11 - Thomson Reuters GFMS publishes its 2012 outlook for world gold prices, demand and supply. Will gold's 12-year bull market continue?
Gold is heading back up to what 2000 dollars on -- pushing the metals bull run into its Tokyo. But there remain huge uncertainties not least our outlook for global growth monetary policy on the investor sentiment. These are among the main findings of the Thomson Reuters TS and X 2012 gold -- and here to discuss more detail as to what club it. Global head of metals -- -- takes out Thompson Reuters TF MS. Obviously you say 2000 dollars and it is possible but you don't sign that typically convinced. Well the chances -- 2012 is that it you know that gold's long -- who run actually comes to mind. I think it's most unlikely that we going to -- -- secular change in direction gold prices this year what was saying instead perhaps is a spike in months. Open next lake high and price is certainly the 2000 -- -- level being surpassed is probably looking loan like -- story for the first half of 2013. Now wrong that something was going to see in the second half of this here. This -- seems to me to be one of the most cautious I know looks for some time. You talk of challenging. Fundamental backdrop what is the biggest challenges that you've seen that yet well I think. Laying behind this is what we've seen. -- the first three months the year where we see the sun amounts investor fatigue I'd say I'd say we've seen some physical markets emerging markets such as India and China -- Punching quite as obviously to Austria. And if we look at how projections this plot to -- this year we're looking at a fundamental -- -- that the law. Pitt which in US dollar terms could be north of 130 billion dollars. I'm not -- this needs to be purchased by either central banks or more likely private sector investors and this is quite a big boss now that's being. Made on these potential investors and believe in so what did you expect that demand the strongest. Well I think we will see the strongest possible long coming from investors in gold and probably particularly again investors in physical. Gold products. But we will also need to see this idea. A stronger commitment. By the ATC market. I'm Wilson the TS I think for the market to clear -- the high prices that we are still full cost. If these economies rather than the big two you mentioned India and China if they there -- go through -- -- to slow. How much of an impact on how one goal in mind set -- on the do we expect well. If we look at India it's the world's largest consumer of -- and China -- second largest if we look at the Indian market we think there is going to be a certain budget constraint this year -- gold prices have gone up very considerably and all -- The rupee commitment in terms of expenditure on jury may be sustained the volume. That is taken off the market in the country is likely to fool looking at China. A slightly more racy picture we think expenditure and voting will play increases here but not the pace that we sold in 2011. Okay just to finish up I am if there's no three feet from the feds and the so called -- money voices within the ECB to Atlanta and the -- shift towards exit strategy. Could be seen 1000 dollars an ounce for gold this year. No I don't think we will see gold drop as far as I think we could definitely see a week paction perhaps even a week patch than these sort of fifteen those fifteen hundred's which we. The seat could be the downside to go this I think. In order for us to get around -- thousand and for the market really to change direction we need. A more clear sign that monetary policy is changing to -- longer term tightening mode. In the major economists and you don't see. I like do not see the actual happening this yeah okay but thank you very much my finds that since Phillip Clark went global head of metals -- -- -- -- -- -- -- MS. I'm -- gave up a semblance of.