Apr. 19 - IACPM executive director Som-lok Leung says international credit portfolio managers expect rising defaults in Asia as those economies slow and euro zone issues take a global toll.
Corporate credit defaults are expected to rise in Asia according to the latest survey from the national association of credit portfolio managers. So is this latest sign that China is heading for a hard landing. For his thoughts -- joined by some hot young executive director of the Y eight CPM good to see you once again thanks for. Yeah for credit in Asia isn't as bad as it is in Europe that it is worse than the last quarter yesterday and it's the worst it's been in. Years in fact. So what does that tell you with this year's. Real severe economic slowdown in child well I wouldn't call it. A large fear at this point but there are signs of concern you know we saw the GDP numbers from China recently. They just released I just couple days ago the investment numbers for an investment in China goes down exports are down in Singapore. -- Central Bank drop their key lending rates so they are. Signs that things are not as robust as they -- and people are trying to take that in to account of their projections and what they do. As he knows that the banks in Europe here in the US have been pumping liquidity in the system for quite some time now. Are you respondents expecting to see anything similar. Well. There's a lot of -- connectedness you know I think we're all tired of talking about yeah there's. -- around that but it's hard to get away from those effects you know when I was looking at the investment for investment numbers -- China a lot of ties back to reduce investment from Europe and got links to the debt crisis in Europe. So I think. That we're we're very very far away from from Asia looking like Europe but they clearly interconnect ness of markets. Into. -- there well pretty respondents telling about the rest of -- beyond. I think it's makes a visit Singapore's different -- is different. Japan has been. Looking that. Like comic book for awhile now -- the big corporations and like Sony. Now experiencing troubles so it's it is today time. I think a lot of uncertainty. People aren't really sure whether to put on -- was up. That you mention that -- contagion effect really coming from Europe when you look at the disparity between expectations credit market for Europe. And North America. Is that telling you that people -- not so worried about contagion effects in the US right now well. They -- the extent that you can see the results for the US are just barely positive. Mean and and the economic -- totally support that very well that scared recovery in that the US is the only. You know -- and and it. Past -- sound linkage to -- via. I think we're we're a little bit more isolated. And I think today is worrisome so I think what we're not going to be. It's as strongly impacted as the European economies but you can't get away from globally -- It's defaults there's not much difference in the types of credit the expectations. Corporates real estate mortgages all looking for increases across the board in the US what is behind that. Typically you might think that one sector would hold up a little bit better. Well I think what we're looking at comparison to where they are now means at our differences between sectors now. But I think the issue is that -- -- change for people looking or probably more like he'd been. And when you look at some of the data at your key takeaways -- when you look at what the expectations expectations are for credit defaults. How do you feel about some of those numbers now compared to say six months ago. I feel like about America. And I thought -- was in Canada last week you know McCain -- -- -- -- -- in the -- you know I think. We can feel a bit more comfortable about North America. That we have been wary of the effects via you know a couple weeks -- looks like -- was halted near term. And relax for a lolly get down markets now reflecting. -- about -- so it doesn't go. Hope it doesn't somewhat beyond thanks so much great to see you again thank you. I've -- shops there this is riders.