May 4 - Princeton's Alan Blinder says it will take four or five more years for all the jobs lost during the recession to come back, and says Americans shouldn't accept a ''natural'' unemployment rate above 5.5%
The industrial structure of the United States for one reason or another technology foreign competition. There are various versions are. Has changed enormously since 2008. So much so that these eight point three million people. That lost their jobs can never took them back I think that's nonsense. The very same. Eight point three million jobs and over the right number -- and not every one of them coming back. The economy changes all the times -- go bankrupt new industries -- war. Let's it was a constant evolution but in terms of gross numbers. I think most of those almost all those jobs. In in a statistical sense will come back. At the rate. That we're progressing it's going to be a long time. And you know it's certainly more than four -- five years more in addition to authorities on the bridge so that's tragically long time. You hear the story that does this pervasive uncertainty. Because of the economy because of health care because about frank. Because the deficit. That American businesses -- frozen in place and that's -- -- iron. Well they're hiring a lot of machinery. Why aren't there aren't a lot of workers. This seems to be. A select the fear. Of expansion. In American business. The absolutely terrific volume of long term unemployment. If you look. Over the broad sweep of postwar history. The unemployed old who have been in that sad situation for over six months. At ten to 15% over unemployed. Lately it's been over 40%. Of unemployed something we have never seen in any post -- recession. Five to five and a half percent I don't believe it's changed and I think it's complete defeatism to think that it has. The hearing voices in America saying well we're not gonna get the unemployment rate much below 8%. Because of the loss of skills because of the change in the industrial structure because of whatever. I hate hearing talk like that it's shouldn't be remotely true. Because for the right -- I was gonna say vicious maybe I should say single minded. American businesses weren't laying off workers. Even given how badly the GDP. Was doing. But jobs did worse. Firms were eager to lay off and are hesitant. Three higher. There's only one way to fix them which is faster economic growth -- I don't see that and prosperous. The Federal Reserve's done about everything it could do they may do little more but they don't have any heavy artillery left fiscal policy. Is a mess. Both politically and intellectually. We're basically left. Hoping that the economy. Accelerates in the someone once said hope is not a policy. It's a shame that -- not treating this as more of a national emergency a lot of us Americans. In the 1980s and marveled at the equanimity. With which European countries except the double digit unemployment as of this was the natural order of things for years and years. Even into 1990s. And you know we thought that would never happen here I'll start to -- -- Start map and here.