Tension on the Korean peninsula could rapidly escalate into an all-out military confrontation, says Patrick Cronin of the Center for a New American Security, with South Korean leadership ready to respond forcefully to any provocation by the North. (April 16, 2013)
-- How does war break out on the peninsula it broke out. In 1950 by deliberate choice today it's more likely that war will break out from miscalculation. North Korea has moved water to -- Saddam. Intermediate range missiles capable of reaching probably up to Guam a US territory major base Anderson air force base and a base umpire and they wouldn't. -- he's from -- mobile launchers not from the case launching pads that we've seen them farther rockets from the past. They have to trajectories that they could use right one of them would fly it over Japanese airspace. Probably near Hokkaido so up in the NORTHERN IRELAND over into the North Pacific -- fall harmlessly into North Pacific. The other one would be to thread the needle through the open our -- an -- and on the south for the create two island chain. For the Philippines. Indeed were wrong so that would be another path to fly. This could be shot down by. American and allied forces using standard missile three -- -- board member of -- Ships. Both cruisers and destroyers. So far we've indicated we don't we won't shoot it down. But if it flies over US territory or near near US territory in your Japanese territory there's a chance it would be shot down. This could trigger a North Korean reaction. At a frustration. And they might go back to what they didn't just -- and show more violence now North Korea. Faces a South Korean government determined not to be week. This is present park and -- the daughter of former general. Determined not to be weak like her predecessor who was criticized. For not responding to those lethal uses of force in 2010. So she's ready to move and the least provocation. Secondly the United States has worked with south Christians do -- intent to come up with a very effective set of counter provocation. Contingency plans. And there will be a response -- this next time if there's any use of force South Koreans have talked openly about having. Fighter aircraft on call go out and take out whatever installations for instance shell. Islands. South Korean islands you could imagine those attacks obviously killing those same people. And so the big kill officers they had killed somebody influential and how does -- Maria. In his case it's quite credible that he may do something that would be I'm not I will point out. If North Korea wanted to achieve. The objective of scaring me. The South Korean scaring Americans. Frightening the Chinese war might break out it might -- something into a populations and. So was a sitting duck for so many weapons systems from artillery shells -- -- missiles and many others it's essentially just stratagem of it -- and begin talks. And if I could try that it would be colossal miscalculation. So you've you've just started. The resumption of the Korean War.