Apr 18 - With the U.S. housing market set to see solid growth in 2013 and 2014, keep an eye on D.R. Horton and Meritage Homes for potential upgrades according to Fitch.
Expect others saw a year for the US housing recovery despite signs of more economic -- according to Fitch. For more we're joined by the agency's homebuilding analyst -- current Bob nice to see you again. Good to be with you what we have seen some positive signs and housing with new construction hitting its highest level on four years. Cat growth accelerate this year and will be led by single family multifamily -- Well we certainly think that housing starts will be higher and not 2013. And actually both single family and multifamily but multifamily. Is likely to be somewhat stronger than single family in both cases. Certainly. In excess of 15% growth. Out I guess the one issue could be what about the economy we still have some questions certainly be out last jobs report. Wasn't exactly the most upbeat. That we've seen -- showing the slowest growth and nine months what's the risk here that this recovery does get derailed and the economy is not as strong as we'd like it to be. Well certainly housing is economy sensitive. I I expect that the labor statistics are gonna continue to be quite variable. Through the course of the year but on the whole probably still gonna show. -- increases of a reasonable levels. Housing I think can continue to do well in that context particularly. Given the very good affordability. Housing at this juncture. When -- housing recovery really take off or from this point on should we expect growth of more subdued than what we've seen in the past. Well actually even last year was more subdued than in the past first year awful thing it's cyclical low. We think it'll be good growth but moderate growth as they say in 2013. And probably 2014. As well. We think there are different issues that moderate the growth. -- over the foreseeable future but it'll still be good healthy numbers. Let's talk about the home building companies now this stocks have been soaring this spdr homebuilders ET up. Up over a 30% in the last year outperforming the broader market what's the outlook for the housing sector in their credit quality there. Well investors are quite aware that. Housing is cyclical. And obviously those that were involved in these credits and stocks in 2012 clearly benefited. Rob it tends to be a multi year recovery as I've indicated. And there's opportunities for. Investors to continue to do well participating. In this particular sector in terms of credit metrics we think the credit metrics will continue to improve. From here although are still well short of where they were at the last cyclical peak which companies looked right for upgrades. Well. I just indicate that there are a number of companies that have been showing. Impressive growth. In the last. Two to three quarters. DR Horton is one. Meritage is another company. We'll see how things progress over the course of the coming. Quarters and year. To see if that might lead to a positive outlooks and perhaps upgrades. Any potential issues that the homebuilders are facing could be seen for instance some supply problems that. We continue C a pickup in demand. That's a very good point. Yes there is a bit of an issue in terms of available developed lots. Four builders to build on. Simply the parties that tend to develop them land developers in the like. Many went out of business during the downturn. And those that had capital may be reluctant to plow it into. -- in development. In the last couple of years. And as a consequence as we've taken off here. There are shortages of good developed lots and what we call eight locations. As we progress through the cycle of say over the next year or so that could be a bit more pronounced and then we'll see more land. Being developed in. -- B and perhaps even -- locations. Reading Bob current thanks so much good to see you. Thank you I'm Rhonda -- this is writers.