Aug. 16 - Merkel is set to win September's election, though she will need a coalition partner. But little will change in policy towards Europe, says Alastair Newton, Senior Political Analyst at Nomura.
In many respects from -- market perspective the outcome of the election is a moment -- relevance -- the it's. Whoever wins that will be no major change of policy you're right they'll be some things that domestic policy the ball. Talk. Or that being said. Opinion polls this far ahead of Kevin and action they would move but all the signs. Good enough we'll continue. -- child all you election. The big question is who would television they wouldn't be a new mandate for the currency do you -- the coalition which I would put a 40% or that if they. Or would it be a grand coalition. With the best he'd be back in 20052009. And I would actually for the 45%. Slightly larger liquidity on that. Relative to a review of existing mandate now of course there are other possible combinations like who will be. Knew it went for and about. But for the time being I think it should I ask -- about hope. Government again. The field. Probably. Day and see you. Looking purely this from the perspective that dynamic. You write them -- -- German domestic policy of simple in our own judgments but on from that perspective. Investors a position in a way which reflects what happened to twelve months ago only who -- three. And then like it is in that mindset on some things that. -- -- -- -- it -- -- Greece Portugal -- few weeks thankful. For the crisis. Slush fund. Scandal and also cools off it well what she but it's. -- coming up and use them. So you. Than the one of those things right. Hold them in action but I don't see us make that in strenuous. On and stop anything becoming prices -- -- -- That by -- and think about reelection this. They seemed to me for the time being the market from just about right. Essentially obviously priority number one it's going to be rushing out to coalition. Agreement which usually things that we would you governments won't name and that will have to be. Some compromises. Respect. Is keep in mind that who moved upon themselves. Towards the Santa. Towards SP the wife from FTC. Nevertheless. There are still aspects of this state that election manifesto policies which will come into question election because it's questionable whether right. Given -- target of a balanced budget by 2015. Secondly euros. Keep things -- an even keel. Might that these we will not see them move towards -- -- amendments until probably like sixty. Which is a long way away from a market perspective that. And if not they were school Germany's. It bombs -- much. And we've euros on solutions. Without treat -- given the strength with the constitution court. Places on each policy and with that point or I think people that if at some point. Long probably. And the court. Will announce its final judgment on yes -- an island -- I'm pretty if it comes up with something often promoted patients programs that will have to deal you.