April 29 - The Ukraine crisis is more than a conflict, it throws into question established post cold war borders and will change geopolitical dynamics, says Citi’s Senior Political Analyst Tina Fordham.
I'm Tina Florida and then I'm the chief political analyst at -- the yeah. You politically it's a game changer because for the first time in in some decades the post Cold War borders are now. In question. I think the annexation of Crimea marks a change in trends and -- the last. A couple of decades Russia and Security Council. Often backed by China has typically. Adopt that posture where sovereignty trumped all. We haven't changed in the formulation where Russian -- and act as if he thought that. Suggest that the period of uncertainty. Of war. Question marks around the borders and territory and even the potential for war referenda if something that -- Did you get used to that was part of the new political lynch. How. And I don't. The facts on the ground are still got a difficult to cut by one of the things that you know isn't actually five million. Think Russians living outside of borders and many of them are concentrated. Particular areas like north quite tough for example so there is the potential if those. -- the Russians Russian language because we're just feel their rights were violated. There's now the legal framework from Russia to potentially get involved doesn't mean that that will happen. Automatically. But is -- it's a new development. The other possible risk is the of the inflammation of the frozen conflicts that followed. The breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 man's -- Easter -- nausea and others and that worries European security officials quite a bit. The crisis. Is likely to have a number of unintended consequences I think for the European Union. One of them that clearly is to focus minds on European dependence on Russian gas. Now that isn't something that can change overnight. And certainly our energy analysts cautioned that as a substitute Russian gas. -- certainly here at the political level a lot more focus on reducing that dependence. There are discussions going on today on ensuring that Ukraine will continue to receive gas supplies in the event. That that much -- off his cap as a result. So we're focused on energy agenda and diversification. I think one concrete area. Defense budgets once again and he. Defense arrangements for the Baltic States. I think we'll see a lot more attention. One possible positive. -- is already seen this. In the European Parliament however has been. The notion that a geopolitical crisis of possible you know relapse military tensions. Does tend to focus minds on the agenda is at least the -- -- legislation. Get more. Attention perhaps more momentum behind it and also the positive sentiment about the European Union. Also like to go up in the protection of its kind. Flash point that after Russia Ukraine is going to be the may 25 presidential elections. And they take place. And it environments of chaos just rain. And public buildings being occupied. Deaths of protesters. I haven't seen. -- monitors being held captive in some cities so. Whether -- -- -- well. It's really the only. Political scientist that that we we can look at. Federalization. And constitutional changes. It's another development which could happen possibly after the new president is reflective. Of course what we've got a new president and praying she says this possibility that that he dissolve parliament and parliamentary elections.